Weekend Report: January 16th-18th, 2009

Paul Blart: Mall Cop registered one of the most impressive openings in recent years over the weekend, accumulating an incredible $33.8m over the first three days of the 4-day Martin Luther King Jr., holiday frame. The opening ranks as the third biggest January opening of all time, behind last year’s Cloverfield (a muscular $40m) and 1997’s re-release of A New Hope (an even more impressive $35.9m). The film led all others in a frame that saw fantastic openings for new releases and impressive holds for older ones.

The January/February period, much like the late August/September one, has traditionally been a dumping ground for studios, which have devoted their energies more to the summer blockbusters and the awards-oriented holiday films. The early year has historically been given over to the holdovers from late in the previous year, which, often buoyed by various awards, always make a substantial amount of their totals during the first quarter of the new year. The new releases this weekend continue a recent trend of impressive January openings which defy the traditional model. Last year, Cloverfield and 27 Dresses opened with $40m and $23m, respectively. Last weekend, Gran Torino’s wide release registered a superb $29.5m—Clint Eastwood’s biggest opening to date—while Bride Wars and The Unborn opened, respectively, with $21.1m and $19.8m. This weekend, in addition to Paul Blart’s $33.8m opening, My Bloody Valentine 3-D opened with $21.9m, Notorious with $21.5m, and Hotel for Dogs with $17.7m. These four openings amount to, respectively, the 3rd, 14th, 16th, and 27th biggest January openings of all time.

Paul Blart benefited immensely from Sony’s marketing. The studio gave the film an unusually strong push, with ads appearing everywhere. The film’s trailer was not particularly brilliant, but evidently contained sufficiently attractive content to tweak the interest of audiences looking for light material at a rather sombre time. The sour economy, in fact, might well be the main reason behind the film’s massive opening. Comedies tend to do well in tough economic times, and Paul Blart is an inexpensive, harmless, PG-rated comedy. Kevin James, the film’s star, stands to benefit greatly from the successful opening. Best known for his comedy show King of Queens, James has in recent years built a reputation as an innocuous comedic actor, appearing alongside Adam Sandler in I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry and with Will Smith in Hitch. Paul Blart is, in effect, James’ breakout hit, and he can be sure to receive more lucrative offers in the future. As for the film, its opening places it in a very good position to achieve what thus far has proven to be an insurmountable feat: passing the $100m mark. Of all January releases, only A New Hope’s re-release has crossed the $100m mark. The only other January films that passed the $100m mark were films that, like Black Hawk Down, opened in limited release in December and had their wide release in January. Several January releases have come close to the mark, including The Hand That Rocks the Cradle, Save the Last Dance, and last year’s The Bucket List, but no film has passed the $100m mark. At this point, Blart is certain to cross the mark.

Sliding down a notch to second place, Gran Torino delivered a powerful second weekend in wide release. The film dropped by a mere 25% for a $22.2m 3-day frame, bringing its total to over $73m. Its second weekend is so large, in fact, that it would have ranked #13 on the list of biggest January openings. Gran Torino’s success affirms the drawing power of its senior director and star, Clint Eastwood, who stands a good chance of being nominated for an Oscar for his performance in the film. Irrespective of the Oscars, the film is guaranteed a final tally above $120m, ranking as Eastwood’s biggest film and one of the biggest surprises in recent years.

Opening in third place, My Bloody Valentine 3-D registered an estimated $21.9m in 2,534 theatres over the weekend. The film, a remake of a 1980s slasher film, benefited from being released in the 3D format, which should help its legs a bit in the weeks to come. The film, at this point, looks to finish somewhere between $50m and $55m.

Following closely on Valentine’s heels, Notorious registered a powerful $21.5m from just 1,638 theatres, for a per theatre average in excess of $13,000—the highest in the top 25. The biopic, detailing the life of 1990s rap and hip-hop star Notorious BIG, follows in the tradition of hip-hop-related films, chief among them 2002’s 8 Mile, that tend to perform better than anticipated because of their underappreciated fanbase. The downside, however, is that such films tend to have poor legs, since much of the fanbase rushes out to view the films during the first weekend. Notorious is likely to end up with the worst legs among the four major openers this weekend, and will struggle to reach $50m.

Hotel for Dogs, a family film starring Don Cheadle and Julia Roberts’ young niece Emma Roberts, opened in fifth place with $17.7m. The film occupies a position which has become traditional for January films, that of the modestly successful January family release. Snow Dogs, a 2002 film starring Cuba Gooding Jr., is the most successful example (except for Paul Blart). It opened with $17.8m and went on to gross over $81m. Hotel for Dogs is unlikely to have such a good run, but looks to be able to reach $60m, outpacing two of the three new releases ahead of it.

Dropping 44%, Bride Wars collected $11.8m in its second frame. The Anne Hathaway-Kate Hudson starrer had a decent opening and is holding up reasonably well, at roughly the same pace as 2008’s 27 Dresses. Look for a finish somewhere between $61-65m. The Unborn, meanwhile, collected $9.8m in its second frame, down 50% for a $33.1m total thus far. Look for a finish slightly below $50m.

Defiance, a Holocaust drama starring Daniel Craig, had a good expansion over the weekend, grossing $9.2m in 1,789 theatres. The film has largely been left out of the award shows, so it is unlikely to receive any upcoming awards-related bumps. It should have, however, a reasonably healthy run and might finish above $30m. Last Chance Harvey, starring Emma Thompson and Dustin Hoffman, also had a good expansion, grossing roughly $4.7m in 1,054 theatres. Look for the film to finish with around $15m in total.

The four Christmas Day releases experienced moderate drops over the weekend, continuing to underperform in relation to their wonderful opening days. Marley and Me dropped 45% to $6.3m, for a running total of $132.7m. The film looks to finish at around $146-150m. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button held up better, dropping 39% to $5.6m, for a $102.6m total. The film is bound to receive major Oscar attention beginning this week, when nominations are announced, which will help it considerably in the weeks to come. The film should finish with at least $130m, but whether it can reach $150m will depend largely on how great the Oscar effect will be, and how well it can hold on to theatres. Bedtime Stories slid by 45% to $4.8m, for a total of $103.8m, while Valkyrie dropped by 42% to $3.9m, for a total of $77.6m. Look for the two films to finish with, respectively, $115-120m and $85-88m.

Slumdog Millionaire, the film of the moment, benefited greatly from its success at the Golden Globes, and increased by 56% despite losing 19 theatres. The film added another $5.9m to its tally, currently at $42.7m. The film’s average rose above $10,000 for the first time in six weeks. This bodes well for the film as it prepares to expand to over 1,000 theatres next week, an expansion no doubt meant to capitalize on the announcement of Oscar nomination. The buzz surrounding the film, which will follow it not only to the awards but, given the high possibility of a win, will last for a while thereafter, is certain to translate into a total above $100m, with an increasingly good chance at $125m.

The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road registered increases as well, spurred by Mickey Rourke’s and Kate Winslet’s Golden Globes wins. Both films grossed around $1.75m during the weekend, bringing their totals to $5.1m and $5.7m. It is difficult to predict what their final tally will be, since much of the future prospects for both films depends on their success at the Oscars and how well their expansion will be managed, but it appears likely that The Wrestler will end up with a higher total.

The top 10 films this weekend grossed a mighty $160.2m, while the top 12 registered a phenomenal $170.6m. This ranks as by far the biggest January weekend of all time, handily beating the previous record-holder, the same weekend frame last year, which was led by Cloverfield and registered $132.4m for the top 12. Additionally, this weekend ranks as the 18th biggest weekend of all time, and ranks as the third biggest weekend of all time outside the summer period. Astonishingly, it came within $8m of matching the recent holiday frame led by Marley and Me in December 2008. These figures bode well for this January, which looks to break last January's record total of $841m.